A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
